The short-term thinking trap
The futures of medicine and healthcare from a professional futurist
Let’s continue to talk about the futures—never more relevant than in a world losing its mind.
I previously talked about why people are hesitant to think about the future and how to meet your future self, but I never explained why we are still so deeply wired for short-term thinking.
Obviously, we all want to live joyful, healthy, and carefree lives. But, in pursuit of this, our focus often shifts to immediate concerns: who will take the child to school, make sure they don’t forget their gym bag (just this once), or whether the phone bill has been paid. We tend to address problems only when they arise.
While this mindset is natural, it creates major barriers to reaching our true goals and greatly hampers our ability to plan thoughtfully for the future. Our daily, seemingly small worries drain our capacity to think long-term. Adding to this challenge is the constant influx of information and stimuli, which can easily overwhelm us, increase our anxiety, and even lead to burnout. It feels like we always need to stay alert, ready for whatever unexpected issue might arise. I’ve been there myself. For a period, I didn’t even silence my phone at night. I’d sleep with it under my pillow, just in case. And, somehow, there was always a “case.” It was exhausting and, in hindsight, totally crazy, not to mention a bad idea for a relationship.
Because of this, we tend to favor tasks that can be quickly finished and checked off our list. For example, emptying the dishwasher feels rewarding because, five minutes ago, it was full, and now it’s empty. Done. Check. This gives us a sense of efficiency and control, but true freedom might come from stepping outside this immediate-focused mindset. By expanding our perspective on time and embracing long-term thinking, we can access a deeper, more meaningful way of approaching life.
We have many tools for exploring the past and a whole scientific field dedicated to uncovering what once was. History is a key part of general education, taught in most schools, to help us learn from past events. The idea is: history repeats itself, and by understanding the successes and failures of those who came before, we can better face today’s challenges.
But the challenges we face now are unlike any we have faced before. For the first time, we are dealingwith widespread climate anxiety, a phenomenon affecting more and more people. We are also witnessing the rise of artificial intelligence, especially generative AI, with significant ethical and legal implications. Meanwhile, medicine is undergoing a cultural shift with the rapid advancement of digital health technologies. Yet, despite these significant changes, education rarely focuses on the future or how to prepare for it. Recognizing this gap, Dr. Peter C. Bishop, after retiring from the University of Houston in 2013, founded Teach the Future. This organization seeks to incorporate futures thinking into education, helping students understand, shape, and prepare for many possible futures ahead.
I intentionally use the plural here, and it’s not a mistake. I know many believe the future can be predicted from a crystal ball, seen as fixed and predetermined because we have one past and one present, so logically, there should be only one future. But in reality, many futures are possible.
The main goal of Teach the Future is to integrate future thinking into the curriculum. The aim is for students not only to learn about the past and present but also to develop the ability to imagine the future, identify opportunities, explore different future scenarios, and understand how their current decisions can influence their future. Before discussing the future with others, Bishop recommends asking ourselves four questions.
Are we capable of teaching about the future?
If so, should we teach about the future?
How do others do it?
What can I contribute to help?
Let’s look at each point separately, today, I’ll only focus on the first question.
Are we able to teach about the future?
Yes, as futurists, we are fully capable of teaching about the future. It’s important to clarify that futures studies are not about sitting around a crystal ball, humming and furrowing our brows, trying to predict what will happen. (Although, I’ll admit, there might be some truth to the humming.)
Teaching about the future isn't about predicting it; instead, it’s about understanding and exploring the possibilities, scenarios, and potential paths it could take. Education in this field doesn’t offer exact answers. Instead, it equips people with tools, ways of thinking, and skills to better understand and actively influence the futures they may face.
Futures studies have been recognized as an academic discipline for decades, with a well-developed, teachable, and transferable methodology.
As a healthcare professional, I find it deeply frustrating that, despite its status as a respected discipline with a robust methodological framework, physicians and life sciences researchers seldom apply futures studies methods in their work.
Numerous foresight methods exist that could benefit medicine and healthcare, serving as tools to navigate uncertainty, anticipate obstacles, and develop proactive solutions. However, few of these methods have gained significant attention or adoption within the medical community.
One notable example is the Topol Review, published in 2019. This report explored how modern technology could transform healthcare and how the UK’s National Health Service (NHS) could prepare for upcoming challenges.
Authored by cardiologist and digital health pioneer Eric Topol, the report aimed to highlight the transformative potential of emerging technologies like artificial intelligence, robotics, and genomics to make patient care more efficient and personalized.
Topol argued that digitalization can transform healthcare by reducing healthcare workers' workload while improving the speed and accuracy of diagnoses. For example, AI could automate routine tasks, allowing professionals to spend more time with patients. AI is especially good at managing repetitive, data-driven tasks—the kind many doctors find both tedious and exhausting.
Additionally, the report highlighted genomics and precision medicine as key advances. These technologies enable more personalized treatments, increasing the chances of successful outcomes by tailoring care to each patient’s needs. However, the Topol Review didn’t just focus on the technological possibilities. It also stressed the importance of preparing healthcare workers to use these tools effectively. Topol believed that as digital technologies become a routine part of everyday medical practice, the nature of healthcare work will evolve.
He emphasized the importance of ongoing education and skill development, ensuring healthcare professionals stay prepared to meet future challenges. The report envisioned a future in which medicine and technology are closely integrated, leading to better patient outcomes and reduced workload for healthcare workers. By combining advanced technologies with a well-trained workforce, Topol depicted a compelling vision of modernized, human-centered, and personalized care. Despite the significant attention this project gained, initiatives like this remain surprisingly uncommon.
Together with my research colleagues, we conducted a scoping review titled
“Exploring the Need for Medical Futures: Insights from a Scoping Review of Healthcare Foresight.” To the best of our knowledge, this is the first scoping review to examine the application of foresight methods and forecasting projects in healthcare.
Our analysis revealed that, among studies accessible in scientific databases, only a few have employed future-oriented methods in healthcare research. These include:
• Trend Analysis: Examining past trends to forecast future events.
• Delphi Method: Gathering and analyzing expert opinions anonymously and iteratively to predict future developments.
• Backcasting: Defining a desired future state and planning the steps needed to achieve it.
• Policy Analysis: Evaluating the consequences of various future decision alternatives.
• Technology Assessment: Studying the social, economic, and environmental impacts of technological changes.
• Horizon Scanning: Systematic identification of potential future changes and early signals.
• Futures Wheel: Mapping the primary and secondary effects of future events using a circular diagram.
• Scenario Analysis: Developing and analyzing multiple possible future scenarios to address uncertainties about the future.
Among these methods, scenario analysis is my personal favorite. Later, I will present a specific example I developed related to climate anxiety.
Futures research has been recognized as an academic discipline for decades, with a well-established, teachable, and transferable methodology.
Of over 50 foresight methods available, only 8 were utilized in publications within the fields of medicine and healthcare. This indicates many untapped opportunities, which leads us to the next question.
Should we teach about the future?
We’ll pick up from here next time.
To my paid subscribers: This weekend, I will be speaking at the Medical Conference of the Endometriosis Foundation of America. I have an extra ticket for all three days, valued at $350. Behind the paywall, I share how you can get it. You can check the conference program at endofound.org. Hope to see you there! :-)
Nora
